The deployment of Egyptian troops to eastern Libya would raise the risk of a confrontation with rival Turkish forces, thus drawing Cairo deeper into Libya's increasingly insoluble civil war.
By Matthew Bey
By Matthew Bey
Potential changes to the way Libya's oil revenue and exports are shared could have significant ramifications for the country's sovereignty by establishing de facto splits in its financial system.
If the GNA does push deep into central and eastern Libya, it risks prompting its rival’s main foreign backers into deepening their involvement in the conflict.
The deployment of new Russian jets to Hifter’s frontlines proves Moscow views the rebel leader as crucial to its greater North African and Mediterranean strategy.
Backed by Ankara, the Libyan government’s recent successes will ultimately increase the eastern leader and his rebel army’s capabilities by strengthening the resolve of his own foreign backers.
For eastern Libya's field marshal, control over energy is an ace up the sleeve to put pressure on his Tripoli-based foes.
While the truce could put the Libyan National Army's push to seize the capital on hold, it raises the risk that oil exports will be used as a negotiating tool.
Ankara's offer of special operations forces and more to Libya's ailing Government of National Accord is unlikely to roll back Field Marshal Khalifa Hifter anytime soon.
Turkey's strategy of advancing its economic and foreign policy interests via greater involvement in Libya carries a significant risk of mission creep.
A request by the internationally recognized government in Libya for more military and security assistance from Turkey will make a complex conflict even more so.