The Libyan Civil War

Unity will remain in name only as the House of Representatives, Libyan National Army, various militias and other institutions continue to wield significant power regionally.

Those set to lose from a peace deal, including Khalifa Hifter and Fayez al-Sarraj, will not accept a deal that undermines their gains.

The easing of the Qatar blockade may help resolve the current GCC crisis, but it won't unite Arab Gulf states’ divergent regional policies.

While it’s unlikely to upend the deal, the Biden administration may restrict the use of American weapons in Abu Dhabi’s controversial regional operations.

Internal disputes among the world’s oil producers next year could leave the global market oversupplied and prices relatively low.

The fractured dynamics of the country’s ongoing civil war will remain significant obstacles to a comprehensive political settlement and lasting peace.

For Israel, the benefits of a stronger regional alliance to counter Iran will likely outweigh the cons of granting the UAE previously denied access to advanced weaponry.

Potential changes to the way Libya's oil revenue and exports are shared could have significant ramifications for the country's sovereignty by establishing de facto splits in its financial system.

If the GNA does push deep into central and eastern Libya, it risks prompting its rival’s main foreign backers into deepening their involvement in the conflict.