Iran's Arc of Influence

Tehran will reject any demands to cut ties with regional militias, raising the risk for more violence in conflict zones like Iraq.

The White House’s renewed criticism of the kingdom’s leadership and human rights record will undoubtedly clash with Riyadh’s own imperatives.

Israel’s push to cut deals with Syria via vaccines could prompt it to pursue a similar strategy to thaw its more difficult relationship with Lebanon.

While it may help mitigate some of the West's concerns, Tehran’s move to extend U.N. access to its nuclear sites won’t sit well with the country’s conservative lawmakers.

With sanctions relief on the line, Tehran will likely ramp up its aggressive behavior in the hopes of driving Washington to the table more quickly.

Israel is signaling its readiness to attack Iran in the hopes of securing a tougher and more comprehensive U.S.-brokered deal.

The fallout will likely include a more severe humanitarian crisis, more complicated intra-Yemeni political negotiations, and ultimately, a more entrenched civil conflict.

Both Israel and Iran are signaling they are prepared to increase tensions in an attempt to influence Tehran's negotiations with the Biden administration.

Tehran's increased nuclear and naval activity in recent days risks provoking a military response in the region, including a potential U.S. strike on Iranian soil.