In this episode of Stratfor's Essential Geopolitics podcast from RANE, Emily Donahue speaks with Ben West, Stratfor senior global security analyst at RANE. India faces a complex set of terror threats that are spread out across the country's diverse geography, originate from a variety of ideologies and rely on widely different tactics.
The two countries' deadly border clash has fueled a surge of anti-China sentiment in India that will prompt Modi to take a more aggressive approach against Beijing.
Until New Delhi restores security in Indian-controlled Kashmir, the investment and migration Modi wants to foster in the region will not substantially materialize.
For Modi and his nationalist ruling party, the political benefits of an Indian Kashmir ultimately outweigh the risks of escalating New Delhi's decadeslong territorial dispute with Pakistan.
India's prime minister has abrogated Kashmir's autonomy with an eye to putting the state more firmly under India's grasp. That, however, could infuriate Kashmiris and the country's archrival: Pakistan.
Nevertheless, Islamabad's own strategy means it will be careful not to pressure the Taliban to accede to U.S. wishes to the extent that it alienates the Taliban.
Pompeo's visit represents a U.S. effort to pursue its twin core interests in South Asia of ending the war in Afghanistan and advancing the U.S. partnership with India.
Animated by their opposing visions of economic prosperity and global influence, China and India's competition over Pakistani and Iranian ports, respectively, carry on at all costs.
After the most violent flare-up in Kashmir in years, Islamabad and New Delhi are sounding out possible talks, although the prospect of a wider conflict is never far away.
New Delhi is eager to maintain its dominance over the smaller states of the subcontinent, but it'll have a hard time competing with Chinese money.
