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The financial crisis appeared to be in the process of being contained on Monday morning, when something wholly unexpected — certainly by us — happened. The U.S. House of Representatives voted against the package that the administration had negotiated with the Democratic and Republican Congressional leadership. The immediate result was a dramatic fall in the equity markets, with the S&P 500 falling almost 8 percent in a few hours. We are now in an intense political crisis that will determine the outcome of the financial and economic crises.

Stratfor has been arguing that the financial crisis would be contained as previous crises had been through government intervention. Whether that intervention came through guaranteed loans or direct acquisition of assets made little difference. The resources the government could bring to bear might create long-term inefficiencies in the markets, but would prevent more immediate disasters.

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