Free Preview of Members-Only Content
To view the requested intelligence, you must be a Stratfor.com member.
Belarus is postponing a decision on whether to recognize the independence of the Georgian breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia until after its own parliamentary elections on Sept. 28, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko said Sept. 8.
Belarus, traditionally a staunch ally of Russia, was silent on the entire Georgian issue immediately following Russia’s intervention on Aug. 8, prompting the Kremlin to ask — quite publicly through its ambassador to Belarus — for Minsk’s vociferous and unmitigated approval of Moscow’s military actions in the Caucasus. Russia recognized the independence of the two Georgian breakaway regions Aug. 25 and has been waiting to see who will follow suit.
Lukashenko’s stalling on the issue shines a spotlight on the ambivalent relationship between Moscow and Minsk. It also creates a window of opportunity for the European Union to attempt to lure Belarus out of its (normally) close orbit around the Kremlin.
| Stratfor Members, please log in at the top left hand corner |

