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The following is an internal Stratfor document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.

1. The ongoing global financial crisis: The financial crisis continues to bite. Exports are flagging in East Asia, European banks are seizing up en masse, and the United States seems unable to shake off the stock market slump despite now having ample bank liquidity. This is the sort of pressure under which countries begin to crack apart. Pay particularly close attention to — in no particular order — Mexico, Ukraine, Pakistan, Hungary, Vietnam, China, Japan, Latvia and the United Kingdom.

2. Asian-U.S. talks at the APEC summit: The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit is this weekend. APEC ceased being a functional trade grouping some time ago, but that does not mean it does not serve a purpose. It has become the premier setting for 20-odd leaders of the Asia-Pacific region to hold bilateral meetings. This time around the most important meetings will be between the American, Japanese, Chinese and Korean leadership. As the global economy has slid into recession, the Asians are bending over backwards to appear to be friends of the United States. Something could well come out of the talk shop.

3. Russia’s moves outside its periphery: The Russians will be at APEC as well, but the big Russian-related news will happen later in the week. It isn’t so much the Russian naval squadron that will be visiting Latin America — although it is the first deployment to the Western Hemisphere in nearly 20 years, so by all means keep an eye open — but instead the other trips the Russian delegation will be making. Specifically, the Russians will be visiting Brazil, Cuba and Venezuela. Those states were chosen explicitly for the amount of heartburn they might cause Washington, and the roster of the Russian delegation could well cause lots. It contains not only Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, but also Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and Federal Security Service guru Nikolai Patrushev. Between the man with the big chair, the man with the checkbook and the man with the spies, the Russians are moving through the region with big plans — and the ability to make deals that stick.

4. The state of the SOFA: The Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) between the United States and Iraq is now before the Iraqi parliament. In theory, the SOFA would not have made it this far without some degree of agreement between the United States and Iran, which has signaled through its Iraqi Shiite allies that it approves — at least in theory — with the deal now on the table. Now we find out just how well the tentative American-Iranian agreements will hold.

5. Venezuelan elections: Venezuela has elections on Sunday for governors and mayors. The shine has long since come off of President Hugo Chavez’s reputation, but his combination of control over paramilitaries and massive oil income has stabilized his rule nonetheless. Even so, crime is inexorably rising even as plunging oil prices are laying bare the cupboards. Ten years of neglect in preserving any non-oil sector has hollowed out the Venezuelan economy. With the welfare state itself under financial threat, these elections could well be a turning point.

EURASIA